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Prime Tales of The Week
Odds of 2025 US Solana ETF itemizing prime 77%: VanEck analysis head
The percentages of a Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) itemizing in america this 12 months are even larger than a popular betting market’s optimistic forecast, in keeping with Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital belongings analysis.
On Jan. 1, cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket stated the chances of a US Solana ETF itemizing in 2025 are round 77%. In a submit on the X platform, Sigel described Polymarket’s forecast as “underpriced.”
Sigel’s optimism mirrors industry-wide expectations of extra crypto ETF listings within the US after President-elect Donald Trump’s November election win. Trump stated he desires to make America “the world’s crypto capital.”
Prediction markets work by letting customers commerce contracts tied to particular occasions, with costs fluctuating dynamically based mostly on anticipated outcomes. Polymarket’s projected ETF itemizing odds elevated to roughly 84% as of Jan. 2, in keeping with its web site.
Terraform co-founder Do Kwon seems earlier than US decide, pleads not responsible
Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon appeared earlier than a US Justice of the Peace on Jan. 2, 2025, and pleaded not responsible to charges in the first legal hearing for the previous tech govt since his extradition to the US.
The embattled crypto founder appeared in Manhattan earlier than US Justice of the Peace Choose Robert W. Lehrburger of the Southern District of New York on Thursday afternoon to submit his plea and agreed to be held with out bail.
The previous tech govt faces 9 counts of assorted costs, together with securities fraud, wire fraud, cash laundering costs and commodities fraud, for his position within the collapse of the Terra ecosystem.
A standing convention is ready for Jan. 8, 2025, for the protection and the prosecution to share proof and focus on motions main into the trial.
The listening to marks a milestone within the authorized saga of the previous tech govt, which has taken several turns since 2023, as Montenegrin court docket officers weighed extraditing the Terraform co-founder to america or his homeland of South Korea.
Memecoins will proceed to lose market share to AI agent cash: Dragonfly VC
AI agent tokens will continue outperforming memecoins in 2025, however their momentum could fizzle out by 2026, in keeping with a enterprise capitalist.
“Memecoins will proceed to lose market share to ‘AI agent’ cash. I take into account this a migration from monetary nihilism to monetary over-optimism,” Dragonfly Capital managing associate Haseeb Qureshi stated in a Jan. 1 X post.
Qureshi stated the “AI agent craze” will most likely persist via 2025, but it surely received’t final endlessly. As extra superior AI merchandise come alongside, individuals will lose curiosity in social media chatbots.
“It is going to die off ultimately. This isn’t the long-term disruption to be careful for from AI, however it is going to be CT’s fixation as a result of it’s the most social,” he stated.
AI agent chatbots have turn into standard within the crypto {industry}, providing crypto customers insights and market value predictions.
Over the previous 24 hours, complete memecoin buying and selling quantity dropped nearly 21.5%, whereas buying and selling quantity among the many prime AI and knowledge tokens rose by 7.95%, in keeping with CoinMarketCap.
China tightens crypto commerce oversight with new foreign exchange guidelines
China’s State Administration of Overseas Change launched guidelines requiring the nation’s banks to watch and flag risky trades involving crypto assets.
On Dec. 31, the South China Morning Put up reported that mainland China’s new guidelines will make it harder for residents to purchase digital belongings.
Underneath the principles, banks should monitor and report dangerous foreign currency trading actions. This contains cross-border playing, underground banks and unlawful cross-border monetary actions involving crypto belongings.
Chinese language regulators additionally require banks to trace the actions based mostly on the id of people and establishments concerned, their sources of funds and the frequency of their trades.
Liu Zhengyao, a lawyer on the ZhiHeng regulation agency in Shanghai, stated that the brand new guidelines will present one other foundation for punishing crypto buying and selling, and added that China’s regulatory stance towards crypto could proceed to tighten.
IRS points non permanent reduction on crypto cost-basis technique modifications
America Inside Income Service (IRS) has issued a short lived reduction for a rule that will have defaulted crypto holders on centralized exchanges to a less-than-ideal accounting method.
The preliminary IRS ruling stated that if traders holding crypto belongings with a CeFi dealer don’t choose their most well-liked accounting technique, like HIFO (Highest In, First Out) or particular identification, the dealer will default to reporting gross sales utilizing the FIFO technique.
FIFO, in any other case referred to as “First In, First Out,” is the default technique for calculating capital positive aspects tax within the US. It’s calculated by assuming the oldest cryptocurrency purchased is bought first, pushing up a taxpayer’s capital positive aspects.
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“You received’t should be locked into FIFO as earlier than,” Cointracker head of tax technique Shehan Chandrasekera stated in a Dec. 31 X post.
Chandrasekera warned that imposing this rule instantly might have “been disastrous” for a lot of crypto taxpayers throughout a bull market.
Winners and Losers
On the finish of the week, Bitcoin (BTC) is at $96,601, Ether (ETH) at $3,448 and XRP at $2.42. The full market cap is at $3.40 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.
Among the many greatest 100 cryptocurrencies, the highest three altcoin gainers of the week are DeXe (DEXE) at 59.13%, SPX6900 (SPX) at 55.02% and Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) at 41.76%.
The highest three altcoin losers of the week are Bitget Token (BGB) at 15.94%, Motion (MOVE) at 13.69% and Hyperliquid (HYPE) at 12.73%. For more information on crypto costs, be certain to learn Cointelegraph’s market analysis.
Most Memorable Quotations
“What started as a satirical commentary on cryptocurrency with Dogecoin has developed into a complicated market vertical that pulls vital capital flows and institutional consideration.”
DWF Labs, crypto enterprise capital agency
“Institutional adoption is anticipated to succeed in unparalleled ranges, additional bolstered by vital inflows into U.S.-based Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.”
Steno Research, impartial monetary analysis agency
“Whereas the potential of a brand new catalyst can’t be dominated out, we wouldn’t be shocked if Ethereum struggles to ship significant rallies subsequent 12 months.”
Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Analysis
“In my opinion, a couple of weeks of consolidation might set the stage for a large breakout. $131.5K+ by Q1 2025 feels inevitable. See you there.”
Jason Williams, entrepreneur and investor
“Present brokers can simply be manipulated into saying loopy issues that injury their manufacturers, or might be jailbroken to steal all of their sources.”
Haseeb Qureshi, managing associate at Dragonfly Capital
“Rising narratives like AI-driven investments, decentralized AI brokers, and tokenized belongings trace at a tech-driven shift, although with added danger.”
Alvin Kan, chief working officer at Bitget Pockets
Prediction of The Week
Ether might wrestle to ship significant rallies in 2025: 10x Analysis
Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Analysis, stated Ether may not be the wisest funding alternative for a 2025 bull run, as the asset may deliver underwhelming returns in contrast with Bitcoin.
Different analysts stated they’re ready for extra affirmation from the value charts to see which method it would go.
“Whereas the potential of a brand new catalyst can’t be dominated out, we wouldn’t be shocked if Ethereum struggles to ship significant rallies subsequent 12 months,” Thielen stated in a Dec. 30 market report.
“Whereas we admire Ethereum’s volatility, we imagine it stays a poor medium-term funding and count on ETH to underperform BTC as soon as once more in 2025,” Thielen stated. “In consequence, our stance on Ethereum stays clear: ‘keep away from.’”
Thielen stated one of the vital necessary metrics to look at in 2025 would be the development in energetic validators. Nonetheless, he famous that the expansion charge of validators had turned adverse, dropping by about 1% over the previous 30 days, elevating considerations concerning the rising danger of extra validators exiting the community.
FUD of The Week
Cybertruck explosion at Trump lodge linked to bomb or fireworks: Musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk stated a bomb or fireworks triggered a Tesla Cybertruck explosion outdoors the Trump Worldwide Lodge in Las Vegas, in what authorities are investigating as a possible act of terror.
Explosive supplies have been carried within the mattress of the rented Cybertruck and thus weren’t associated to the Cybertruck itself, Musk said in a Jan. 1 follow-up submit on X after confirming that Tesla was investigating the incident: “All automobile telemetry was optimistic on the time of the explosion.”
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Police have said that the Cybertruck was stuffed with fireworks mortars, gasoline tanks and tenting gasoline.
Officers haven’t confirmed the id of the motive force of the Cybertruck, who was killed within the explosion that wounded seven others, however said a joint investigation of federal, state and native authorities was working to determine the suspect and decide if it was an act of terrorism.
“Present findings counsel this was an remoted incident with no indication of a bigger plan,” the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Division stated in a submit on X.
Unlawful crypto adverts prevail in UK regardless of FCA warning
Unlawful crypto adverts proceed to seem in the UK regardless of its financial regulator asking crypto projects to take away their commercials focusing on the nation.
According to a Monetary Occasions report, 54% of the 1,702 alerts issued by the UK’s Monetary Conduct Authority (FCA) between October 2023 and October 2024 led to unlawful crypto adverts being taken down. The report stated the remainder of the crypto-related promotions are nonetheless up.
The FCA has not but fined firms that didn’t take away crypto adverts that violate the FCA’s guidelines. Rules require digital asset promotions to get approvals from the FCA or an FCA-authorized enterprise earlier than going stay.
Prime Journal Tales of The Week
How crypto legal guidelines are altering internationally in 2025
Crypto companies are leaving Europe as rules tighten, however the future is brighter in America as crypto friendly regulators take over.
I grew to become an Ordinals RBF sniper to get wealthy… however I misplaced most of my Bitcoin
I educated beneath the steerage of a sensible previous Bitcoin RBF sniper and landed within the crossfire of a war between snipers and NFT marketplaces.
Right down to $200 in the future, Pixels founder had $2.4M the following: Luke Barwikowski, X Corridor of Flame
Luke Barwikowski says the early days of constructing Pixels have been spent juggling work on a dairy farm, staying in surf hostels and sailing in New Zealand.
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FTX partners with Visa, BNB Chain suffers exploit and Elon Musk returns to $44B Twitter deal: Hodler’s Digest, Oct. 2-8
Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter, FTX’s partnership with Visa and BNB Chain’s latest exploit headline this week’s Hodler’s Digest.
Venezuela shuts down Petro, SEC’s X account hacked, Bitcoin ETFs go live: Hodler’s Digest, Jan. 7-13
Bitcoin ETFs authorized and buying and selling within the US; SEC’s X account is hacked, inflicting havoc in markets; and Venezuela discontinues its nationwide cryptocurrency, Petro.
