The chances of a Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) itemizing in the USA this 12 months are even larger than a well-liked betting market’s optimistic forecast, in accordance with Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of analysis.
On Jan. 1, cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket stated the chances of a US Solana ETF itemizing in 2025 are round 77%. In a publish on the X platform, Sigel described Polymarket’s forecast as “underpriced.”
Sigel’s optimism mirrors industrywide expectations of extra crypto ETF listings within the US after President-elect Donald Trump’s November election win. Professional-crypto Trump stated he needs to make America “the world’s crypto capital.”
Prediction markets work by letting customers commerce contracts tied to particular occasions, with costs fluctuating dynamically primarily based on anticipated outcomes. Polymarket’s projected ETF itemizing odds elevated to roughly 84% as of Jan. 2, in accordance with its web site.
Supply: Polymarket
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Favorable itemizing prospects
In June, VanEck and rival asset supervisor 21Shares sought permission from US regulators to record spot Solana ETFs.
In August, the US Securities and Change Fee reportedly challenged the asset managers’ plans, citing concerns SOL qualified as a security relatively than a commodity.
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs — the one two varieties of cryptocurrency ETFs permitted to commerce on US exchanges — use an atypical “grantor belief” construction usually designed for funds that passively maintain a single kind of commodity. Issuers say success could hinge on whether or not proposed Solana ETFs can conform to an analogous construction.
Trade analysts see Trump’s presidential win as a inexperienced mild for greater than half a dozen proposed crypto ETFs ready on regulatory approval to record within the US.
In November, shortly after Trump’s victory within the US presidential race, Sigel reportedly said the odds of the US greenlighting a SOL ETF in 2025 are actually “overwhelmingly excessive.”
Supply: Polymarket
Bullish bettors
Polymarket is the most well-liked cryptocurrency betting platform, clocking practically $2 billion in buying and selling quantity in December alone, in accordance with information from Dune Analytics.
Through the US elections in November, betting platforms proved extra correct than conventional polling, forecasting not solely Trump’s win but in addition his occasion’s sweep of the US Home and Senate.
Bettors are wagering that 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets, with BTC and ETH hitting all-time highs and several other new varieties of crypto ETFs itemizing within the US.
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